The Spectator has received polling data for key constituencies across the United Kingdom, that could prove to be vital in the battle for Number 10.
Cheshire – CON HOLD
This seat is currently held by the Conservative Tommy2Boys, former Defence Secretary.
The Conservative-LPUK rivalry for this seat is self-evident and both parties are now within 0.86% of each other. After rumblings from Libertarian sources particularly, Tommy2Boys could be in with a fight to hold this seat if they received no endorsements. In this seat, if the Conservatives could get an endorsement from Coalition!, this would make the margin between themselves and the LPUK much more comfortable. Party support that may not be immediately obvious is the leap Solidarity have experienced, and have overtaken the Liberal Democrats to take 3rd place.
Shropshire and Staffordshire – CON HOLD
This seat is currently held by Conservative u/Sir_Myself, who is the current Shadow Chancellor Duchy of Lancaster.
The status of this as a safe seat has not changed with a comfortable margin for the Conservatives in this seat with the incumbent projected to be 21.71% ahead of their nearest competitor, the LPUK. Although the projected share of the vote is down a worrying 16.5% from the General Election, the Conservatives still hold a strong lead over their challengers.
Southwest London – LIB GAIN FROM CON
This seat is currently held by Conservative Deputy Leader u/MatthewHinton12345, who held their seat against a heavy Liberal Democrat assault.
With polling numbers like this, the Deputy Leader will be given a run for their money and CCHQ will be concerned about what the well-established Liberal Democrat election strategy of ‘scalping’ could inflict in this constituency, which could see this key member of the Conservative Party lose their seat in what would be a huge win for the Liberal Democrats. An endorsement for the Conservatives by either the Libertarians or Coalition!, could see the Conservatives hold their seat with a coordinated and comprehensive campaign.
Southeast London – LAB GAIN FROM LIB
This seat is currently held by Liberal Democrat u/ alpal2214.
Due to a change in polling that has seen voting allegiances change, this seat will change hands from the Liberal Democrats to the Labour Party. If this poll carries through to election day, this could see a decrease in the Liberal Democrat vote share by 6.32% and the Labour Party hold onto most of their vote share from the last General Election only losing over half of what the Liberal Democrats have with a fall of 3.87%.
Hampshire South – LAB GAIN FROM CON
This seat is currently held by Conservative u/soccerfun101.
This election would see the Conservatives lose this seat to the Labour Party by a larger margin than the Conservatives won it in the previous General Election by 0.2%. If the Conservative Party could gain the endorsement of the Libertarian Party in this seat it would provide a boost and bring hope to the Conservatives aiming to hold the seat.
Glamorgan and Gwent – LAB GAIN FROM LIB
This seat is currently held by Liberal Democrat u/model-cock.
This polling sees the Labour Party make a gain from the Liberal Democrats with the Welsh National Party having a strong showing at 14.2%. This constituency polling sees the Liberal Democrats drop 12.5% which is one of the larger voting share shifts that we have seen tonight.
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